Identification of vulnerable areas to flash floods using weighted sum analysis and unsupervised machine learning in arid regions of the northern Atacama Desert

Edwin Pino-Vargas; German Huayna; Ángel Tapia; Víctor Pocco; Jorge Espinoza-Molina; Fredy  Cabrera-Olivera; César Huanacuni-Lupaca; Karina Acosta-Caipa; Lía Ramos-Fernández

doi:10.17268/sci.agropecu.2025.020

Autores/as

Edwin Pino-Vargas Department of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7432-4364
German Huayna Master's Program in Water Resources, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4518-1023
Ángel Tapia Master's Program in Water Resources, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna, Peru. https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9905-7077
Víctor Pocco Department of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9654-4499
Jorge Espinoza-Molina Department of Architecture, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2236-8335
Fredy Cabrera-Olivera Master's Program in Water Resources, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1429-8728
César Huanacuni-Lupaca Master's Program in Water Resources, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1148-4050
Karina Acosta-Caipa Department of Architecture, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1872-9062
Lía Ramos-Fernández Department of Water Resources, National Agrarian University La Molina, Lima, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3946-7188

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17268/sci.agropecu.2025.020

Palabras clave:

Flash floods, Caplina Basin, Weighted Sum Analysis, Unsupervised Machine Learning, Atacama Desert

Resumen

In recent decades, global warming has triggered significant changes in the hydrological cycle, leading to various disasters, especially contrasting events such as droughts and floods. These occurrences have also been recorded in the Atacama Desert, resulting in considerable economic losses worldwide, in Latin America, in Peru, and within the study region. The primary objective of this study is to obtain fundamental morphometric parameters, including basic spatial, linear, shape, and landscape aspects through the integration of GIS tools and artificial intelligence, enabling the identification of flood-prone areas within micro-watersheds. The studied basin is located at the head of the Atacama Desert, in southern Peru, where various lithological and hydro-geomorphological structures influence its vulnerability to floods. To assess flood vulnerability in the Caplina River micro-watersheds, 16 morphometric parameters were precisely analyzed, identifying areas of high vulnerability that require basin management measures. The results show that the hydrological response of the Caplina Basin is strongly influenced by its morphometric characteristics, with micro-watersheds in the middle and lower sections exhibiting higher susceptibility to flash floods. These findings aim to support urban planning and watershed management, offering insights for policymakers to develop flood mitigation strategies and enhance infrastructure resilience.

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