El cambio climático en los andes y su impacto en la agricultura: una revisión sistemática
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17268/sci.agropecu.2021.012Palabras clave:
sistemas agrícolas, vulnerabilidad, glaciares, erosión, modelo climático, servicio hidrológicoResumen
En los últimos años, la agricultura de los Andes ha mostrado mayor sensibilidad al cambio climático, favoreciendo procesos de erosión del suelo, retroceso de glaciares, pérdida de cobertura vegetal, incremento en la intensidad de lluvias y alteración en la dinámica de los cultivos de la región como: papa, quinua, maíz, entre otros. Lo que motivó que, muchos autores desarrollen simulaciones de modelos regionales para estimar el índice de vulnerabilidad de estos sistemas agrícolas ante estos eventos climáticos, permitiéndoles otorgar una data climatológica más confiable en presencia de vientos cálidos y secos. En el presente artículo de revisión, se detallan los principales aportes brindados por diversos investigadores respecto al impacto del cambio climático en la agricultura andina. Según los antecedentes recopilados se concluye que, el cambio climático en los Andes provocará que países como Brasil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Guyana y Colombia, incrementen su temperatura local, potencial de evapotranspiración y escasez de agua, ocasionando la pérdida de cultivos importantes como el arroz. En contraste, países como Perú, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia y Uruguay registrarán temperaturas más bajas que afectarán su producción y rendimiento en cultivos como la quinua, papa, tarwi, entre otros.
Citas
Agudelo, J., Urbina, N., & Armenteras, D. (2019). Critical shifts on spatial traits and the risk of extinction of Andean anurans: an assessment of the combined effects of climate and land-use change in Colombia. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, 17(4), 206-219.
Bax, V., & Francesconi, W. (2018). Environmental predictors of forest change: An analysis of natural predisposition to deforestation in the tropical Andes region, Peru. Applied Geography, 91, 99-110.
Bedoya, N., Pumi, G., Talamini, E., et al. (2018). The quinoa boom in Peru: Will land competition threaten sustainability in one of the cradles of agriculture? Land Use Policy, 79, 475-480.
Bennett, M., New, M., Marino, J., & Sillero-Zubiri, C. (2016). Climate complexity in the Central Andes: A study case on empirically-based local variations in the Dry Puna. Journal of Arid Environments, 128, 40-49.
Berrouet, L., Villegas, C., & Botero, V. (2020). Vulnerability of Rural Communities to Change in an Ecosystem Service Provision: Surface water supply. A Case Study in the Northern Andes, Colombia. Land Use Policy, 97, 104737.
Blackmore, I., Rivera, C., Waters, W. , et al. (2021). The Impact of Seasonality and Climate Variability on Livelihood Security in the Ecuadorian Andes. Climate Risk Management, 32, 100279.
Bonfiglio, A., Arzeni, A., & Bodini, A. (2017). Assessing eco-efficiency of arable farms in rural areas. Agricultural Systems, 151, 114-125.
Bonnesoeur, V., Locatelli, B., Guariguata, M., et al. (2019). Impacts of forests and forestation on hydrological services in the Andes: A systematic review. In Forest Ecology and Management, 433, 569-584.
Butt, N., & Gallagher, R. (2018). Using species traits to guide conservation actions under climate change. Climatic Change, 151(2), 317-332.
Buytaert, W., Celleri, R., Willems, P., et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal rainfall variability in mountainous areas: A case study from the south Ecuadorian Andes. Journal of Hydrology, 329(3–4), 413-421.
Carey, M., Baraer, M., Mark, B., et al. (2014). Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru). Journal of Hydrology, 518, 60-70.
Carón, M., De Frenne, P., Ortega, P., et al. (2018). Regeneration responses to climate and land-use change of four subtropical tree species of the southern Central Andes. Forest Ecology and Management, 417, 110-121.
Clerici, N., Cote, F., Escobedo, F., et al. (2019). Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes. Science of the Total Environment, 685, 1181-1192.
Correa, S., Mello, C., Chou, S., et al.(2016). Soil erosion risk associated with climate change at Mantaro River basin, Peruvian Andes. CATENA, 147, 110-124.
Dosseto, A., & Schaller, M. (2016). The erosion response to Quaternary climate change quantified using uranium isotopes and in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclides. Earth-Science Reviews, 155, 60-81.
Engel, Z., Skrzypek, G., Chuman, T., et al. (2014). Climate in the Western Cordillera of the Central Andes over the last 4300 years. Quaternary Science Reviews, 99, 60-77.
Erda, L. (1996). Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to global warming in China. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 92(1–2), 63-73.
Fritz, S., Baker, P., Ekdahl, E., et al. (2010). Millennial-scale climate variability during the Last Glacial period in the tropical Andes. Quaternary Science Reviews, 29(7–8), 1017-1024.
Gili, S., Gaiero, D., Goldstein, S., et al. (2017). Glacial/interglacial changes of Southern Hemisphere wind circulation from the geochemistry of South American dust. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 46, 98-109.
Goodbred, S., Dillehay, T., Galvéz, C., et al. (2020). Transformation of maritime desert to an agricultural center: Holocene environmental change and landscape engineering in Chicama River valley, northern Peru coast. Quaternary Science Reviews, 22, 1-13.
Gorostiague, P., Sajama, J., & Ortega, P. (2018). Will climate change cause spatial mismatch between plants and their pollinators? A test using Andean cactus species. Biological Conservation, 226, 247-255.
Grados, D., & Schrevens, E. (2019). Multidimensional analysis of environmental impacts from potato agricultural production in the Peruvian Central Andes. Science of the Total Environment, 663, 927-934.
Graham, T., Matthews, H., & Turner, S. (2016). A Global-Scale Evaluation of Primate Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Change. International Journal of Primatology, 37(2), 158-174.
Guzman, C., Hoyos, F., Da Silva, M., et al. (2019). Variability of soil surface characteristics in a mountainous watershed in Valle del Cauca, Colombia: Implications for runoff, erosion, and conservation. Journal of Hydrology, 576(2019), 273–286.
Haeberli, W., & Weingartner, R. (2020). In full transition: Key impacts of vanishing mountain ice on water-security at local to global scales. Water Security, 1, 100074.
Iriarte, J., Elliott, S., Maezumi, S., et al. (2020). The origins of Amazonian landscapes: Plant cultivation, domestication and the spread of food production in tropical South America. Quaternary Science Reviews, 248, 106582.
Jara, I., Moreno, P., Alloway, B., et al (2019). A 15,400-year long record of vegetation, fire-regime, and climate changes from the northern Patagonian Andes. Quaternary Science Reviews, 226, 106005.
Jat, M., Dagar, J. , Sapkota, T., et al. (2016). Climate change and agriculture: Adaptation strategies and mitigation opportunities for food security in South Asia and Latin America. In Advances in Agronomy ,137,127-235.
Kinouchi, T., Nakajima, T., Mendoza, J., et al. (2019). Water security in high mountain cities of the Andes under a growing population and climate change: A case study of La Paz and El Alto, Bolivia. Water Security, 6, 100025.
Kumar, S., Raizada, A., Biswas, H., et al. (2016). Application of indicators for identifying climate change vulnerable areas in semi-arid regions of India. Ecological Indicators, 70(2016), 507-517.
Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Gleixner, S., et al. (2020). Assessment of weather-yield relations of starchy maize at different scales in Peru to support the NDC implementation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, 108154.
López, S., Jung, J., & López, M. (2017). A hybrid-epistemological approach to climate change research: Linking scientific and smallholder knowledge systems in the Ecuadorian Andes. Anthropocene, 17, 30-45.
Lüning, S., Gałka, M., Bamonte, F., et al. (2019). The Medieval Climate Anomaly in South America. Quaternary International, 508, 70-87.
Lynch, B. (2012). Vulnerabilities, competition and rights in a context of climate change toward equitable water governance in Peru’s Rio Santa Valley. Global Environmental Change, 22(2), 364-373.
Machado, J., Villegas, C., Loaiza, J., et al. (2019). Soil natural capital vulnerability to environmental change. A regional scale approach for tropical soils in the Colombian Andes. Ecological Indicators, 96(65), 116-126.
Martini, M., & Astini, R. (2019). Comment on “Sensitivity of glaciation in the arid subtropical Andes to changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation” by Vargo et al. (2018). Global and Planetary Change, 172, 475-478.
Michelutti, N., Cooke, C., Hobbs, W., & Smol, J. (2015). Climate-driven changes in lakes from the Peruvian Andes. Journal of Paleolimnology, 54(1), 153-160.
Michler, J., Baylis, K., Arends, M., et al. (2019). Conservation agriculture and climate resilience. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 93, 148-169.
Nanavati, W., Whitlock, C., Iglesias, V., et al. (2019). Postglacial vegetation, fire, and climate history along the eastern Andes, Argentina and Chile (lat. 41–55°S). Quaternary Science Reviews, 20, 145-160.
Ochoa, P., Fries, A., Mejía, D., et al. (2016). Effects of climate, land cover and topography on soil erosion risk in a semiarid basin of the Andes. Catena, 140, 31-42.
Ortiz, A., Outhwaite, C., Dalin, C., et al. (2021). A review of the interactions between biodiversity, agriculture, climate change, and international trade: research and policy priorities. In One Earth 4(1), 88-101.
Perotti, M., Bonino, M., Ferraro, D., et al. (2018). How sensitive are temperate tadpoles to climate change? The use of thermal physiology and niche model tools to assess vulnerability. Zoology, 127, 95-105.
Pineda, L., & Willems, P. (2018). Rainfall extremes, weather and climate drivers in complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and EV modeling. Journal of Hydrology, 563, 283-302.
Ponce, C. (2020). Intra-seasonal climate variability and crop diversification strategies in the Peruvian Andes: A word of caution on the sustainability of adaptation to climate change. World Development, 127, 1-22.
Ramirez, J., Cuesta, F., Devenish, C., et al. (2014). Using species distributions models for designing conservation strategies of Tropical Andean biodiversity under climate change. Journal for Nature Conservation, 22(5), 391-–404.
Rangecroft, S., Harrison, S., Anderson, K., et al. (2013). Climate change and water resources in arid mountains: An example from the bolivian andes. Ambio, 42(7), 852-863.
Ríos, C., Watson, J., & Butt, N. (2018). Persistence of methodological, taxonomical, and geographical bias in assessments of species’ vulnerability to climate change: A review. Global Ecology and Conservation, 15, 1-15.
Riquetti, N., Mello, C., Beskow, S., et al. (2020). Rainfall erosivity in South America: Current patterns and future perspectives. Science of the Total Environment, 724, 138315.
Rosas,M., & Gutierrez, R. (2020). Assessing soil erosion risk at national scale in developing countries: The technical challenges, a proposed methodology, and a case history. Science of the Total Environment, 703, 135474.
Santillán, V., Quitián, M., Tinoco, B., et al. (2020). Direct and indirect effects of elevation, climate and vegetation structure on bird communities on a tropical mountain. Acta Oecologica, 102, 103500.
Schlunegger, F., & Norton, K. (2013). Water versus ice: The competing roles of modern climate and Pleistocene glacial erosion in the Central Alps of Switzerland. Tectonophysics, 602, 370-381.
Scoville, M. (2018). Climate, the Earth, and God – Entangled narratives of cultural and climatic change in the Peruvian Andes. World Development, 110, 345-359.
Seo, S. (2011). An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America. Ecological Economics, 70(4), 825-834.
Souvignet, M., & Heinrich, J. (2011). Statistical downscaling in the arid central Andes: Uncertainty analysis of multi-model simulated temperature and precipitation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 106(1-2), 229-244.
Stansell, N., Polissar, P., Abbott, M., et al. (2014). Proglacial lake sediment records reveal Holocene climate changes in the Venezuelan Andes. Quaternary Science Reviews, 89, 44-55.
Trauth, M., Bookhagen, B., Marwan, N., et al. (2003). Multiple landslide clusters record Quaternary climate changes in the northwestern Argentine Andes. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 194(1–3), 109-121.
Tuberville, T., Andrews, K., Sperry, J. H., et al. (2015). Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned. Environmental Management, 56(4), 822-834.
Uribe, N., Srinivasan, R., Corzo, G., et al. (2020). Spatio-temporal critical source area patterns of runoff pollution from agricultural practices in the Colombian Andes. Ecological Engineering, 149, 105810.
Vanacker, V., Govers, G., Poesen, J., et al. (2003). The impact of environmental change on the intensity and spatial pattern of water erosion in a semi-arid mountainous Andean environment. Catena, 51(3–4), 329-347.
Vargo, L., Galewsky, J., Rupper, S., et al. (2018). Sensitivity of glaciation in the arid subtropical Andes to changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. Global and Planetary Change, 163, 86-96.
Vicenzi, N., Corbalán, V., Miles, D., et al. (2017). Range increment or range detriment? Predicting potential changes in distribution caused by climate change for the endemic high-Andean lizard Phymaturus palluma. Biological Conservation, 206, 151-160.
Villanueva, R. (2005). Características de la Cuenca del Río Santa. 37, 59-64.
Viveen, W., Zevallos, L., & Sanjurjo, J. (2019). The influence of centennial-scale variations in the South American summer monsoon and base-level fall on Holocene fluvial systems in the Peruvian Andes. Global and Planetary Change, 176, 1-22.
Vlontzos, G., Niavis, S., Manos, B. (2014). A DEA approach for estimating the agricultural energy and environmental efficiency of EU countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 40, 91-96.
Vuille, M., Carey, M., Huggel, C., et al. (2018). Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead. Earth-Science Reviews, 176, 195-213.
Williams, J., Gosling, W., Brooks, S., et al. (2011). Vegetation, climate and fire in the eastern Andes (Bolivia) during the last 18,000years. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 312(1–2), 115-126.
Zimmerer, K., de Haan, S., Jones, A., Creed, H., et al. (2019). The biodiversity of food and agriculture (Agrobiodiversity) in the anthropocene: Research advances and conceptual framework. Anthropocene, 25, 100192.
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2021 Arlitt Lozano-Povis, Carlos E. Alvarez-Montalván, Nabilt Moggiano
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.
Los autores que publican en esta revista aceptan los siguientes términos:
a. Los autores conservan los derechos de autor y conceden a la revista el derecho publicación, simultáneamente licenciada bajo una licencia de Creative Commons que permite a otros compartir el trabajo, pero citando la publicación inicial en esta revista.
b. Los autores pueden celebrar acuerdos contractuales adicionales separados para la distribución no exclusiva de la versión publicada de la obra de la revista (por ejemplo, publicarla en un repositorio institucional o publicarla en un libro), pero citando la publicación inicial en esta revista.
c. Se permite y anima a los autores a publicar su trabajo en línea (por ejemplo, en repositorios institucionales o en su sitio web) antes y durante el proceso de presentación, ya que puede conducir a intercambios productivos, así como una mayor citación del trabajo publicado (ver efecto del acceso abierto).