La floricultura como cultivo alternativo: Análisis descriptivo, modelación con inteligencia artificial, análisis de escenarios y análisis económico

Peter  Coaguila-Rodriguez; Vicente Serapio Pocomucha-Poma; Franco Cerna-Cueva

doi:10.17268/sci.agropecu.2025.003

Autores/as

Peter Coaguila-Rodriguez Universidad Nacional Agraria de la Selva, Tingo María, Perú. http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8445-3231
Vicente Serapio Pocomucha-Poma Universidad Nacional Agraria de la Selva, Tingo María, Perú. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1292-6583
Franco Cerna-Cueva Universidad Nacional Agraria de la Selva, Tingo María, Perú. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7448-558X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17268/sci.agropecu.2025.003

Palabras clave:

Floricultura, análisis económico, cultivo alternativo, inteligencia artificial, biodiversidad, sostenibilidad, comercio justo

Resumen

La floricultura es un sector de creciente importancia a nivel mundial, contribuyendo a la generación de empleo, ingresos y a la promoción de la biodiversidad y la sostenibilidad. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo identificar los factores que influyen en la adopción de la floricultura como cultivo alternativo en la provincia de Leoncio Prado, Perú, y evaluar su viabilidad económica. Para ello, se encuestó a 269 agricultores, analizando actitudes, aptitud de la tierra, factores socioeconómicos y ambientales. Mediante análisis descriptivo, pruebas de chi-cuadrado y regresión logística (p < 0,1) se seleccionaron los factores influyentes. Además, se emplearon múltiples algoritmos de aprendizaje automático (Árboles de Decisión, Regresión Logística, KNN, SVM, Ensemble, Redes Neuronales, Naive Bayes) con validación cruzada (k = 5) y métricas AUC para modelar la intención de adopción. Se desarrollaron escenarios incrementando la predisposición a adoptar la floricultura, y se realizó un análisis económico de ocho especies tropicales (Ginger Rojo, Anturio, Bastón del Emperador, Heliconia, Gardenia, Pico de Loro, Heliconias Golden, Maracas). Los resultados revelan que la disposición a cambiar de cultivo, la participación en campañas de sensibilización, la destinación de áreas a la conservación y el control de costos son factores clave. El modelo de redes neuronales alcanzó un AUC de 83,3% y escenarios mejorados indican que la adopción podría incrementar hasta en 11,32%. El Ginger Rojo demostró alta rentabilidad (VAN S/10428; TIR 51%; PRI 0,7 años). En conclusión, la floricultura representa una alternativa económica y ambientalmente viable que contribuye a la diversificación agrícola y a la sostenibilidad.

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